Risk, Uncertainty, and Cognitive Bias

Distinguish between risk (decisions with known probabilities) and uncertainty (decisions with unknown outcomes); identify cognitive biases that distort risk assessment: availability heuristic (judging likelihood by how easily examples come to mind), present bias (overvaluing the immediate over the future), optimism bias (underestimating personal risk), and groupthink; understand why adolescent brains are biologically calibrated toward higher risk tolerance; apply a structured decision-making framework to real choices; understand the role of personal values in decisions where facts alone cannot determine the answer

Usually learned at ages 11–12

Builds on: Difficult Ethical Choices, Ethics in Real-World Issues

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On the map from: Marble Skill Taxonomy (v1), © Generative Spark, Inc. (withmarble.com), text CC BY-SA 4.0, database ODbL 1.0: https://github.com/withmarbleapp/os-taxonomy